Risk review

Effective management of risks and opportunities is essential if Debenhams is to deliver its strategic and operational goals, protect its reputation and ultimately enhance shareholder value.

Safeguarding future returns

The board of Debenhams is responsible for determining the nature and extent of the risks it is willing to take in achieving its strategic objectives. As part of its decision-making process, the board, which has overall responsibility for risk management and internal control, considers it important that there should be a regular and systematic approach to risk issues in order to provide assurance that strategic targets can be met. This approach includes the board’s own assessment of risk which takes into consideration factors identified through organisation-wide risk reviews.

Internal control

The board is responsible for the Company’s system of internal control and for reviewing the effectiveness of the internal control systems in place. Such systems are designed to manage rather than eliminate the risk of failure to achieve the business objectives and can only provide a reasonable and not an absolute assurance against material misstatement or loss. The board has conducted a review of the effectiveness of internal controls and is satisfied that the controls in place remain appropriate.

Debenhams maintains a framework of internal controls using the COSO model, which covers the following activities: control environment; risk assessment; information and communication; control activities; and monitoring. These activities are described in more detail below. In addition, the board takes into consideration relevant guidance provided by the Financial Reporting Council and other enterprise risk management best practices.

Control environment

The board demonstrates the control environment to Debenhams’ stakeholders through its compliance with the UK Corporate Governance Code, Debenhams’ own internally published risk management strategy, related policies and procedures and, in particular, the Debenhams’ Code of Business Conduct.

Risk assessment

Risks to the achievement of Debenhams’ strategic and operational goals have been identified through various organisation-wide reviews, the most recent of which was completed in October 2011. The senior management team, including the board, participated in this exercise which considered the business strategy, related objectives, internal and external risks to their achievement, changes in legislation and any new or emerging risks, together with existing and any new controls required to mitigate those risks. Risks were ranked according to a matrix of likelihood and impact of occurrence and plotted onto the Company risk map, an example of which is shown below.

The calculation of the impact and likelihood was supported by guideline bandings of how to classify the risk based on the overall change in performance across a number of KPIs to ensure consistency. The Group’s risk register was also updated and the internal audit plan adjusted accordingly.

Risk map

Information and communication

The board reviews the key risks and relevant mitigation strategies annually, which could include that the risk is tolerated, transferred, treated or terminated, to ensure that all key issues are being managed effectively, taking action to strengthen where necessary. In addition, the Audit Committee satisfies itself that the key risks are being monitored by senior management and that the internal audit plan is focused on high priority areas.

The internal audit team updates the board and the Audit Committee on the effectiveness of risk management within each discrete area audited throughout the year. The Audit Committee will bring any areas of concern to the attention of the board.

Control activities

A series of control activities is used to mitigate the risks identified include risk transfer (through a third-party contract), financing the risk through insurance or consideration by management of re‑engineering the process in question.

In addition, only suitably qualified employees are responsible for each of the functions within Debenhams to ensure that each area operates effectively. Training, performance reviews and support mechanisms are also in place to ensure standards of performance are maintained.

Monitoring

The risks that have been identified are monitored through a variety of mechanisms which include: monthly management accounts, board meetings, the audit programme, fraud detection systems across point of sale and certain central data repositories including new developments for multi-channel operations, the critical and serious risk monitor, internal procedures such as stocktakes and stockfile counts, prevention tools such as CCTV and through management controls.

In addition, Debenhams operates a number of processes to test its financial information and controls. An operating plan is prepared in August of each year, shortly before the start of the financial year and a revised forecast is prepared each month of the financial year which analyses actual performance and highlights variances against the plan. In particular, performance is monitored through a series of key ratios. Daily sales, weekly sales and margin and monthly management accounts are prepared, all of which report on performance against the operating plan, last year and forecast. A treasury report is made to each board meeting which covers matters such as senior operating restrictions and covenant reporting and forecasting (under the Group’s banking facilities), exposure to foreign exchange and hedging arrangements, net debt and interest rate hedging, cash flow and cash flow forecasting and amounts deposited with counterparties.

Risk management and internal audit

Debenhams’ risk management function includes the internal audit, anti-fraud, insurance and profit protection departments. This combination enables the Company to maintain a cohesive approach to all aspects of risk management whilst allowing the internal audit team to benefit from the insights that other elements of the function can provide. The internal audit plan focuses on critical and serious risk testing of high priority areas.

An evaluation of the effectiveness of both internal and external audit teams was undertaken by an external company in August 2011. The respondents included all members of the Audit Committee, members of the board, function heads and senior retail managers.

In relation to the internal audit function, this evaluation considered effectiveness in a number of categories: interaction with the Audit Committee, robustness of audit, quality of delivery and quality of team. The categories for external audit were: robustness of audit, quality of delivery and quality of people and service. Whilst improvements can always be made, the overall feedback was very positive for both internal and external audit effectiveness.

Whistleblowing

All Debenhams’ employees are required to adhere to the Code of Business Conduct and the Anti-Bribery and Corruption Policy, with senior employees required to confirm their compliance in writing. These policies set out the ethical standards expected by the Company and include details of how matters can be raised in strict confidence. Two main routes are available to employees at all levels within the Company to raise concerns over malpractices. The first, “Employees’ guideline to problem solving”, encourages employees to talk to their line manager, their manager’s line manager or, if still concerned, to call HR Connect (the Debenhams’ central human resources team) directly. The second route is a confidential reporting line through which employees can speak to Debenhams’ anti-fraud team. If an employee feels that the matter is so serious that it cannot be discussed in any of these ways, they should contact the Company Secretary or the Head of Internal Audit and Risk Management directly and contact details are provided. The Company’s policy on whistleblowing and these methods of raising issues of concern are published on the Debenhams intranet and emphasised on posters. The policy is also reviewed annually by the Audit Committee. All serious matters identified are raised with the Chairman of the Audit Committee.

Principal risks and uncertainties

The risks detailed overleaf and in the Notes to the Financial Statements are the principal risks and uncertainties that may impact Debenhams’ ability to achieve its strategic and operational goals. Both external factors, such as the economic environment, and internal factors, such as the retention of key management, are included in the risks and uncertainties that could substantially impact performance. Relevant mitigation for each risk is also outlined. These risks are presented in no particular order. It should be noted that any system of risk management and internal control is designed to manage rather than eliminate the risk of failure to achieve business objectives and can only provide reasonable and not absolute assurance against material misstatement or loss.

External risk

Risk and impact   Examples of mitigation   Change*

Consistent fall in customer spending as a result of economic downturn, inflation or deflation

Reduction in gross transaction value and a decline in sales on discretionary purchases

 

Board conducts strategic business reviews which ensure that management is focused on key priorities and cost control. These reviews also focus on the growth strategy through new stores, brand development, enhanced multi-channel offer and expanding international opportunities.

  Same

Competitive pressures in existing markets influencing customer behaviour

Place pressure on our pricing strategy, margins and profitability

 

Debenhams differentiates its customer offer through its unique brand and product mix. An understanding of customers and their needs is developed by listening to their views, market intelligence and reviewing key performance indicators, which ensures that pricing is competitive.

  same

Sustained supplier cost price increases due to rising cost of raw materials, labour, water etc.

Place pressure on margin and will also divert financial and management resources from more beneficial uses

 

Debenhams fosters excellent relationships with its suppliers that are mutually beneficial. Both parties work towards the objective of optimising fulfilment and costs, which is measured regularly by management through key performance indicators. Alongside this, Debenhams develops multiple sourcing routes to ensure pricing remains competitive.

Whilst the impact of higher input prices was managed well and average price increases over the spring and summer season were lower than the market as a whole. Debenhams and its suppliers will continue to work hard to deliver the best performance possible in a very challenging market.

  up

Loss of profit or additional expenditure caused by increased energy or fuel costs

Place pressure on margin and will also divert financial and management resources from more beneficial uses

 

The energy committee works on the key objectives to control energy usage including the impact of the Carbon Reduction Commitment scheme. An energy hedging policy is in place to provide a high degree of cost certainty.

  same

Please refer to the Notes to the financial statements for other risks in this category.

*Change in severity and/or likelihood of risk during course of 2011.

Financial risk

Risk and impact   Examples of mitigation   Change*

Risks associated with currency, hedging, interest rates, credit, counterparties and financial covenants under the credit facilities

Hinder ability to adjust rapidly to changing market conditions and impact earnings and cash flow

Hedging strategy may not adequately protect operating results from the impact of exchange rate fluctuations or may limit any benefit caused by favourable movements in exchange rates

Affect available cash and liquidity and could have material effect on the business, results of operations and financial condition

Inappropriate decisions could be made using wrong or ambiguous information or lack of knowledge

 

Debenhams has a treasury policy in place which covers counterparty limits and hedging for both foreign exchange and energy. There is also an internal treasury function which is mandated by the board and audited annually.

Debenhams closely monitors all aspects of working capital to support its objective of deleveraging the balance sheet and effectiveness is measured regularly by management through a series of key performance indicators.

Business critical spreadsheets and databases used by the Finance department have been identified and appropriate control measures put in place in line with Debenhams policy to ensure data integrity.

The risk has been decreased since net debt at year end was £373.7 million, a reduction of £133.1 million since the start of the year. On 18 July 2011 we announced a further refinancing of the senior credit facility which has extended its duration from October 2013 to October 2015 and reduced the cash interest rate from c.4.5% to c.4.0% with effect from that date.

  Down

Shortfall in the pension fund

Increases in pension related liabilities could impact profit and cash flow

 

Trustees carefully monitor the pension fund and adjust the investment strategy appropriately with any shortfall being brought to the board’s attention.

  same

Please refer to the Notes to the financial statements for other risks in this category.

*Change in severity and/or likelihood of risk during course of 2011.

Strategic risk

Risk and impact   Examples of mitigation   Change*

Inability to predict or fulfil customer demands or preferences

Sales will be lower, market share reduced and forced to rely on markdowns and sales to dispose of excess or slow-moving inventory or inventory shortfalls on popular merchandise

 

Debenhams utilises market, trend and customer awareness research to understand current demands and preferences. It delivers these requirements through multiple channels, including its stores and website. To achieve this Debenhams constantly develops these channels and maintains high operational standards to differentiate itself from its competitors. Debenhams manages stock levels and the supply chain closely in order to ensure product newness is maximised.

Although Debenhams remains cautious about the strength of consumer confidence and the timing of an economic recovery, Debenhams will be focusing on the retail basics of giving our customers great products in an inspirational shopping environment, whether in our stores or through one of our multi-channel access points. We are therefore confident that Debenhams can continue to make progress over the coming year.

  Down

Departure of key personnel and failure to attract or retain talent

Significantly delay or prevent achievement of business plan

 

In order to attract and retain talent, both succession and personal development plans are in place throughout the organisation. In addition, target-led, performance-related incentive schemes exist.

  Same

Failure to develop and implement the new store roll out or acquisitions successfully

Reduced growth or a decline in gross transaction value and may be required to write down the value of any stock acquired for sale in an uncompleted store

 

Debenhams undertakes research of key markets and demographics to identify potential locations to drive growth through new space. A full investment appraisal is conducted as part of the decision making process and a specialist team has responsibility for end‑to‑end management of each project once the decision is made.

  Same

Failure of ethical trading policy, poor perception in the market on corporate responsibility matters or negative impact to brand due to product quality, supply chain practices, health and safety etc.

Negative effect on reputation leading to loss of stakeholder trust and confidence, material adverse effect on the ability to attract and retain third party brands, suppliers, designers, concessionaires and franchisees with subsequent impact on performance and results

 

The sustainability committee works on the key objectives such as ethical sourcing, legislative change and corporate responsibility matters. The work includes consideration of key topics such as Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE); Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH) and Carbon Reduction Commitment (CRC). To ensure that Debenhams has the most current information available, it is a member of relevant industry bodies that provide awareness of changes to standards and legislation. Debenhams is an active member of the Ethical Trading Initiative (ETI) and expects all suppliers to follow the ETI base code and to adhere to Debenhams’ own Supplier Code of Conduct. A robust approval process is in place, to underpin the ETI base code, for the selection of factories for both new and existing suppliers: adherence is monitored through regular third party audits. Factory outputs are also checked by the internal Quality Assurance team to ensure the integrity of Debenhams’ own brand products.

A reliance on third party suppliers, the challenges in the current economic environment and the complexity of the new and existing legislation make this an increasing risk which Debenhams and its suppliers must work harder to manage.

  Up

*Change in severity and/or likelihood of risk during course of 2011.

Operational risk

Risk and impact   Examples of mitigation   Change*

Failure to deliver a business critical project

Divert financial and management resources from more beneficial uses and significantly damage ability to manage information technology systems

 

A full investment appraisal is conducted as part of the decision making process and must be signed off by a board member before any projects are undertaken.

As part of project governance, a steering committee monitors all key areas involved in the delivery of the project, a project framework is used, selected projects will be reviewed by internal audit and post investment appraisals are undertaken.

  Same

Ineffective brand awareness and marketing programmes

Loss of market share, customer loyalty, reduction in gross transaction value and a decline in sales on discretionary purchases

 

Debenhams utilises market, trend and customer awareness research to understand current demands and preferences. This information is used to identify specific segments of the market to target and to form a proposal as a marketing campaign. A full investment appraisal is conducted as part of the decision making process and must be signed off by a board member before any campaign is undertaken. Campaign effectiveness is monitored through external feedback and internal analysis.

  Same

Risks associated with leasehold properties

Significant alterations in rental terms could have a material adverse effect on the business, as would failure to secure desirable locations

Disputes over store modernisations may lead to reinstatement costs and termination of leases may lead to dilapidation costs being incurred

Failure to manage asbestos in specific properties may lead to fines or other liabilities affecting Debenhams reputation and the full or partial closure of properties

 

Debenhams has a specialist property team which manages all aspects of leasehold property, including cost renegotiations, communication of the store modernisation process, lease renewals and adherence to all legal obligations under the lease.

Debenhams is also a member of key industry bodies which provide awareness of changes to standards and legislation.

Debenhams consults with industry experts to ensure that its asbestos policy and asbestos register are fully up to date. All locations where asbestos has been identified are clearly marked with signage and the condition is checked on a regular basis with action taken in the event of any deterioration. Any works undertaken in these areas are approved by both the health and safety and building services teams, prior to any work permits being issued with specialist companies used as required.

Review of the historical performance in this area suggests that the exposure to this risk has reduced.

  Down

*Change in severity and/or likelihood of risk during course of 2011.

Hazard

Risk and impact   Examples of mitigation   Change*

Loss of business or additional expenditure caused by terrorism, strikes, riots, natural disaster or pandemics

Adverse effect on inventory and gross transaction value and will divert financial and management resources from more beneficial uses. In the case of terrorism, customer confidence may be impacted

 

The business continuity committee works on the key objectives such as planning, testing and invoking. As part of this, the committee is responsible for: the selection of recovery sites which are equipped to minimise the disruption to Head Office operations; ensuring that key third parties have suitable business continuity plans in place; and the effective communication of matters surrounding business continuity to the organisation as a whole.

The store business continuity plan was invoked as a result of the riots in August 2011 and the actions taken worked in practice and therefore losses were minimised.

Insurance policies have been placed as appropriate to minimise the impact of specific risks.

  Up

Additional expenditure or reputational damage caused by changes in legislation or a breach of regulations

Adverse effect on inventory and gross transaction value and will also divert financial and management resources from more beneficial uses

 

Debenhams has specialist taxation and legal and secretariat teams and is also a member of key industry bodies which provide awareness of changes to standards and legislation.

A new business policy is in place for anti-bribery and corruption, and forums exist to focus on specific areas of legislation, for example: a data protection steering group; an information security forum (to focus on PCI); an anti-bribery and corruption committee (to focus on compliance).

  Same

Theft of customer data or breach of payment card industry data security standards

Negative effect on reputation leading to loss of stakeholder trust and confidence, with subsequent impact on performance and results and will also divert financial and management resources from more beneficial uses

 

The information security forum reviews projects and key activities for compliance to the relevant standards. Debenhams’ compliance to the PCI standard is monitored by management and reported to the Audit Committee. A number of security tools are employed to protect data, including encryption, intruder detection and data loss prevention.

  Same

Personal injury or property damage relating to a major Debenhams or supplier location

Injury or loss of life to staff or customers. Negative effect on reputation and will divert financial and management resources from more beneficial uses

 

The executive health and safety committee reviews compliance for Debenhams in this area and a number of participants are members of various relevant industry bodies. The committee receives input from specialist teams which focus on discrete aspects. These include health and safety, building services, insurance and buying and merchandising. To support compliance and to maintain high operational standards, health and safety awareness programmes are in place and each site has its own health and safety committee.

  Same

Disruptions or other adverse events affecting relationships with or the performance of major suppliers, store card providers, designers or concessionaires

Costs associated with the transfer of the operations or the potential of extra operational cost from a new provider

Changes in exclusivity arrangements with designers or any decline in their popularity could have a material adverse impact

Loss of a number of important concession partners may adversely affect GTV

Adverse events within the supply chain could restrict the availability or significantly increase the cost of goods

Credit insurance difficulties for a significant number of suppliers could lead to a detrimental variation of terms or alternative suppliers used to source some goods

 

In order to minimise the impact of any third party relationship or performance issues, Debenhams’ objectives are to maintain excellent third party relationships by ensuring strategies are aligned, to have appropriate, unambiguous contracts in place, to ensure third parties are financially robust and to have contingency plans in place in the event of a failure (eg conversion of space to own bought for concessionaire failure, multiple sourcing routes for supplier failure).

  Same

Fraud or industrial espionage

Negative effect on reputation and will divert financial and management resources from more beneficial uses

 

In order to mitigate fraud across all channels in which Debenhams operates, a number of preventative measures are in place. These include: accounting policies and procedures; systems access restrictions; expenditure authorisation levels; whistleblowing and anti-bribery and corruption policies; and a Code of Business Conduct, all of which provide employees with guidelines on how to escalate an issue confidentially. A variety of monitoring mechanisms are used to identify fraudulent activity, which includes data mining across point of sale and head office functions. As part of the organisation-wide risk assessment, all members of management sign an anti-fraud, bribery and corruption declaration. Issues identified are investigated and reported to the Audit Committee.

  Same

*Change in severity and/or likelihood of risk during course of 2011.